Social Collapse Best Practices

Speaker: Dmitry Orlov

Sponsored by: The Long Now Foundation

Presented: February 13, 2009

Dmitry Orlov is possibly the worst presenter I have ever heard. He had no presentation or visuals, but just read in a monotone directly from his notes and only glanced up occasionally. He would sometimes take a drink of water in an awkward way - pause, unscrew cap, sip, screw back on cap, continue.

However, the presentation was actually interesting and bitingly sarcastic. It was also funny in an awkward way; often two or three people in the audience would laugh conspicuously, not really sure if he was joking or not. The really funny part was - he wasn't joking.

His talk was on the economic and social collapse of the Soviet Union and how it might be different or similar in the US.

He didn't recommend building a bomb shelter and stocking it with 2-years of dehydrated food. He also didn't recommend buying an isolated cabin in the mountains. He did recommend stockpiling useful things, or items that could be traded - like vodka. He also said that the most important thing to do was to be mentally prepared for the hardships to come.

Overview

• Cause of collapse: shortage of crude oil, trade deficit,  military budget, foreign debt
• US on same trajectory as USSR
• He grew up in Russia, moved to US when 12. Went back several times
• Soviet: lost jobs, savings, hyper-inflation, shortages, increase in crime
• Soviet economy a failure, but produced a system that was resistant to crash
• Oil imports are the Achilles heel of US economy
• Funny: Information spreads at the speed of light but ignorance spreads instantly thru the universe
• Predictions are always off by half a decade. There is nothing more useless than predictions once they come true
• When collapse happens, the old ways don't work but new ones will
• Examples: JIT vs. inventory on hand, efficient staffing vs. large bureaucracy
• US is like a ship on rocks with water rising and the captain is shouting 'full ahead'
• Government should focus on: Food, shelter, transportation, security, then move to de-industrialized economy
• Unsustainable: 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce 1 calorie of food

Russia example

• Kitchen gardens never sufficient but enormously helpful
• Walking distance of grocery
• Housing in crowded apartment but no foreclosures or evictions
• Family and friends nearby
• Utilities continued
• Lots of crime, but could hire policeman or soldier for protection

US Can Prepare

• 1000 sq ft for gardens near water
• Convert empty parking lots to gardens
• Suburban dwellings not viable
• Mass migration to cities
• Convert offices to dormitories
• 4 year colleges dubious, turn into community centers
• Cargo bikes and sailboats
• Ban sale of new cars: We will run out of cars just as we run out of gas
• Pack 12 people into pickup bed
• Make it illegal not to pick up hitchhikers
• Use empty train cars for transportation
• Breed donkeys: less skittish than horses and eat almost anything
• Won't have to worry about legal issues: donkey in garage, windmill,
• Convert lawn to garden
• Good to have well-armed, semi-psychotic friends
• Develop community security

Peak Oil

• 2005-2008 oil production flat, oil now flat at $40
• Oil could become $400 to $4000 with hyper-inflation
• Domestic oil in decline

What to Do

• Accept the failure of the system now and adapt accordingly.
• Not helpful: Buy gold, buy cabin in mountains, build bunker
• For shelter: become property caretaker or squatter
• Job: be ready to be fired, get burn rate to zero - scale down needs
• Money: buy and stockpile useful stuff