Electric Car 2.0

Berkeley Stanford CleanTech Conference

May 5th 2010

This is the fifth in a continuing series of focused conferences highlighting clean technology solutions to address the planet's multifaceted energy challenges. This conference will cover electric vehicles and their key role in the future of the world's transportation system. The panels will discuss some of the exciting new innovations in electric vehicle technology, the opportunities and competition from China, and the policies and economics that are paving the way for a transformation in the automobile sector. (From BSCC5)

Intro

Elanie Kan: Chair BSCC

• 2009 China produced more cars than America

Keynote

• Will small car companies survive?
  • Dan: Big companies invested in gasoline, harder for them to embrace electric so their existing business is not canabalized
  • Marc: When government mandates something (like CA ZEV program), the results tend not to be good. ZEV funds came out of companies PR budgets. Big car companies outsource all technology except ICE, so this will cause resistance. Big guys will have to buy this technology, which is an opportunity.
  • Marques: Big boys will come because they don't want to get left behind, but attempts will likely be half hearted. In the absence of assurance that there will be huge EV penetration, Detroit won't likely do anything but EV experiments. Small companies can make business out of niches that big guys don't want to bother with.
• Is there financial advantage to being small?
  • Marques: Ability to be nimble is a big advantage, but suppliers wary of smaller companies doing less than 100k units. For CA, path to 20k to 30k units is reasonable.
  • Dan: 100k to 200k is needed for many suppliers. Coda can make money at 10k units.
  • Marc: Economist in 2003 predicted that the big guys have gotten so big, they can't survive with EV niches so automotive startups will spring up to fill 10k to 30k unit range.
• Charging infrastructure
  • Marc: We don't need nearly as many charging stations as people used to think when EVS have a couple hundred mile range. Crucial is
    • EV plugs are standard
    • Accounting is standard so anyone can buy power at any charging station
    • PUCs allows charging station owners to sell power
  • Saul: Agrees charging station owners need to be able to sell electricity. PG&E suggests light regulation, but no utility style regulation
  • Dan: Sees phased rollout
    1. Home charging
    2. Work charing, next 1 to 3 years
    3. Level 3 charging next
• Fast charging interesting, but do we spend public dollars for this?
  • Marc: Most households have more than one car, and one is suitable for long distance trips. So we don't need to spend lots of money on long distance charging infrastructure
  • Saul: iPhone app tracked distance traveled and found similar to previous studies
• How will Coulomb and similar work with PG&E?
  • Saul: Aggressive method is for utilities could ask regulator to own both public and private charging stations. However, other ways are possible so they don't know exactly how this will work. Goals: Affordable, encourage innovation, and support customers
• Battery prices coming down to $375/kWh?
  • Marques: Yes, battery prices coming down but other technologies are coming too that will help bring the cost down
  • Dan: This price might not be real, but costs are coming down. Sees prices coming down 5-10% per year.
  • Marc: Energy density also important and this is increasing from 1.8 to 3.4 kWh cells in 7 years for about the same price which is a huge increase
  • Saul: Durability important. GM overcompensating battery size, but once they start getting real data will be able to optimize pack size
  • Mark: Li-ion consumer grade already below $250/kWh. Vehicle grade could be lower or higher. BMS adds to price.

 

China - Opportunities and Challenges Panel

China overtook the U.S. in car sales last year, making it the world's largest car and van market by no small degree: over 13 million vehicles were sold in China compared with 10 million in the U.S. In an effort to address climate change and decrease foreign dependence on oil, both countries share the desire to increase the percentage of electric vehicles on their roads. Automakers and innovative start-ups are looking beyond their home markets and eyeing opportunities across the Pacific. What is the outlook for electric transportation in China? Are current transportation policies in China sufficient to encourage widespread consumer adoption of EVs? What intellectual property considerations must be taken into account when U.S. innovators license in China? How does access to strategic inputs affect EV manufacturing in China vs. in the U.S.? This panel seeks to answer the questions necessary to successfully operate in the Chinese electric transportation market. (From BSCC5)

 

Moderator: Eric Wesoff - Journalist, GreenTech Media
Panel:

• Jit Bhattacharya - CEO Mission Motors
• Roland Hwang - Transportation Manager at NRDC
• Marc Gottschalk - Partner at Wilson Sonsini and co-founder CleanTech Open
• Luka Erceg - President, CEO Simbol Mining Corp 
• Zicon Xie - Assistant GM, Putian-CNOOC new Energy Power Corp

Statements

• Roland: NRDC believes EVs essential for CO2 reduction. Chinese gov cares a lot about promoting EVs because of oil dependency, air pollution. 100M electric bikes in China.
• Marc: China has major appetite for clean tech but struggle is how to interact with China to protect IP but gain access to Chinese market
• Jit: Starting to cell EV technology they developed for their electric motorcycle. Can't work in EV industry and ignore China because: supplier of parts, market. 20M electric scooters in China, 4M sold per year, some Li-ion. 200M EVs in China by ?, 95% sold in China. MM exploring partnership with Chinese company.
• Luka: Simbol Mining provides lithium. Goals is lowest cost product. Processes lithium from the output waste of geothermal plants. Reaching zero waste and zero carbon in their process. Also manganese and zinc. US imports 97% of lithium it uses, mainly for greases. In 1998 US produces 78% of lithium carbonate. US 100% reliant on importing manganese. China considering 100% export ban on lithium. 97% of rare earth elements come from China.
• Zicong: Charging infrastructure and battery exchange important

Questions

• US energy policy to make use competitive in EV industry
  • Roland: Policy to reduce oil dependency, create EV market by demo projects, consumer incentives, new sustainable business model - costs more up front but less ongoing. Gov invest in secondary battery market for load leveling.
  • Marc: Admin has right buckets but not right focus. Stimulus money ignored more innovative companies and went to some that didn't need it.
  • Jit: Investment in infrastructure to overcome range anxiety, increase CAFE standards, invest in new technologies
  • Luka: Stop selecting winners and let the market do that.
• Peak Oil
  • Eric: Only energy policy in US today is to keep the price of gas low
  • Roland: Lot of unconventional oil especially in OPEC countries and tar sands, liquifying coal.
  • Marc: As price of oil goes up, lots of clients business plans look better
• Policies to spur clean tech investment
  • Roland: VCs don't want to rely on gov support to make a viable business. VCs not the right place to go for much clean tech technology

Policy and Economics Panel

As vehicle manufacturers strive to perfect design and technology, and innovative companies meet complex infrastructure challenges, how can the U.S move from concept to implementation? This panel will discuss the role of policy and economics in the widespread adoption of electric transportation. Creative solutions such as the e-drive bill or San Francisco's EV charging installation program will be highlighted, as panelists discuss current policies that help or hinder growth in electric transportation. What programs are currently being implemented, and how successful have they been? How can future policies effectively incentivize electric transportation? What are the economic and political barriers to implementation? What role does investment play in electric transportation, and how can appropriate policy complement these investments? This panel will address overarching economic and political challenges facing electric transportation, and how to overcome them. 

Moderator: Lee Schipper - Professor at Stanford University
Panel:

• John Boesel: President of CALSTART
• Ann Bordetsky: North American Market Development, Better Place
• Will Coleman: Partner at Mohr Davidow Ventures
• Bob Hayden - EV Program Manager SF

Statements

• John: CALSTART works with a variety of clean transportation companies
• Ann: Better Place global provider of network services and wants to promote EVs massive adoption
• Will: Early stage investments
• Bob: Working with many city departments to make sure SF is EV ready by the end of the year. 1 Easy to install home charging, 2 public charging, 3 make regional market

Lee Schipper Presentation

• 4.5 average trips per day (means 9 plug in and outs per day)

Questions

• What policy problems do EVs resolve?
  • Bob: Climate change. 40% CO2 related to transportation (50% when including drilling and refining)
  • John: Many paths to future, need to support multiple approaches and be technology neutral. Incredibly important to defend AB32. Need price on carbon.
  • Ann: Need to deploy at a large scale. If gas had externality pricing, problem would take care of itself.
  • Will: Defend AB32. Oil dependence driver of EVs. Money has a time-value (discount rate), we should have discount rate with the environment as well.
• Who pays for EV incentives?
  • Bob: Not the cities! However, many policies don't have high price tags, like make it easier for permits and inspections of home EV charging stations. Apply PACE principles (adding to mortgage and payable over 20 years) to EV charging infrastructure
  • Ann: We pay one way or another. Real price to high level of oil consumption. If we put towards EVs it will have significant positive impact on economy. Through stimulus we put $2B in battery technology, but will this pay off? There could be more supply than demand if EV growth isn't fast enough.
  • John: Cato Institute said we are paying an extra $60B per year for military support for oil import. Better policy to put a value on carbon.
• What if government policy is pulled away?
  • Will: Gov likes to jerk us around because then we have to go to Washington and give them more money. We need to find a way to make it work without government help. Need long term certainty (like 10 to 15 years) but this is unreasonable to expect when congress is elected in 2 to 6 year terms.
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