Reducing Oil Usage with PHEV

Moderator: Matt Miyasato, South Coast Air Quality Management District

Argonne National Laboratory

Uses 2 surveys
- 2001 NHTS with almost 85k vehicles households keeping travel diary for 360k trips
- 2005 AHS survey, 56k interviews covering 123 million households
44% vehicles driving less than 20, 84% less than 60 miles
20 EV miles=41%, 40 miles =63%
More cost effective to use up all EV range each day
20-30 mile range seems most cost effective for one charge per day
Results might change if able to charge more than once
Could charge at work before noon since this is usually off-peak
Residents with garage in suburbs most likely to buy PHEVs
As population increases, daily miles driven decreases and more trucks, so this is compatible with need for PHEVs in suburbs
As population decreases, people have more cars and drive more
Diesel cars in france took about 35 years to capture 75% of the market
It could take 15 to 20 years to achieve 30% market share, and up to 40 years for more
Fleet turnover is 7 to 8% per year

Rochester Institute of Technology

Regional Economic Impact
Did six regional case studies
Three E's of sustainability: Energy, environment, economics, (Equity)
US Transportation consumes 14 million barrels per day to transportation
72% petroleum imported
$500 billion dollars per year leave the US to pay for transportation oil
Total Federal budget to run all agencies except defense is $365 billion
We pay more for oil for transportation each year than we do to run the entire government (except defense)
Reducing oil can have significant effects: Direct, indirect and induced. For instance, electricity direct is money paid for electricity, indirect is money the utility spends, and induces are jobs and services that crop up around this indirect payments
PHEV decreases oil, but increase electricity costs. Also savings allow households to have more money to spend on other things
Regional Input Output (RIO) analysis
Metropolitan service areas MSA
Assumptions PHEV penetration of 40% by 2030, all electric 16 - 20%
Sacramento: 170 Million gallons displaced, 1,240 GWh/yr increased electric usage, $250-460 million savings per year
Sacramento: Net increase in economic activity $110-250 million/yr, 860-870 jobs
PHEV fuel switching can result in considerable positive impacts for regional economy
DOE estimated in 2005 that oil prices would hit $3.20/gallons by 2030
Didn't take into account economics of health benefits
These benefits provide reason for policy makers to incentivize the PHEV markets

Argonne National Laboratory

Complications in Estimation of Oil Savings via Electrification of Light Duty Vehicles
If everyone owned a PHEV-20 and charged once a day, 31-39% miles would be saved
As costs goes down, HEV share will stay the same, PHEV share will increase and consumers will be increasing range
Series PHEV-40 will need about 110kW motor and battery should produce 90kW at min SOC
Certification drive cycles imply all electric operation is reliable across different speed ranges
Over a large span of population density, average hours per day per vehicle are remarkably constant, bug vehicle speed increases as population decreases
At lows speeds, medium and long range PHEVs would need charging just once a day
Electrifying low speed miles will save less fuel per hour than high speed miles
PHEVs can save 0.075 gallon of gas per plug kWh input over wide range of speeds and power train type
Full EV don't look particularly useful
City EVs (60 mph max) might get 2 - 4% of the market if cost between $10k to $20k
With one charge, PHEV-10 could get 23% of the market, PHEV-40 could get 60%+

Ron from CalCars estimates savings of 50 gallons per year per kWh. Answer: Dan's numbers were based on savings in the same vehicle not running off batteries, so comparing against standard ICE would be higher
Does economic benefit include gasoline taxes? Answer: No, taxes were assumed to be the same.

Revised on July 24, 2008 08:50:08 by Max Dunn (216.1.176.121)

Max S. Dunn