The American Lake – Week 9

Next Week

• Tightening oil resources likely will create oil blocs not unlike the cold war and will inevitably lead to war
• US are ideologists
• Russians trying to regain dominance
• Chinese have a manifest destiny but have pretty much lost their ideology

Middle East History and Status

• (Went over most of it previously)
• Nixon was occupied with Israeli issues, Vietnam war, oil embargo and setting up Iran
• CENCOM in Tampa studies Middle East issues
• Iranian hostages released right after Reagan came into office
• Iranian Army was no longer in existence after Ayatollah Khoemeni took power and Muhajadeen was military force
• This lead to the Iraq/Iran war lead by Sadaam
• US was basically supporting anyone that was losing. First was Iranians, but then Iraqis started losing and we stuck with them until it ended in 1989.
• Iran couldn’t get the territory it wanted and Basra remained in Iraq.
• Sadaam thought he won the war and moved to take additional territory when he invaded Kuwait
• Kuwait has a monarch much like Saudi Arabia but without the mythic religious influence
• Kuwait invasion threatened SA and this ticked off the US because he had a lot of bad weapons supplied by the US for the Iran war
• We used the Weinberger/Powell doctrine of “overwhelming force” to invade Kuwait with 400,000 coalition troops, which was successful
• Decision not to go to Baghdad was in part because of sensitivity to the coalition forces
• This war proved that the US was the major force in the Middle East where most of the world’s oil is located
• During the 90s we contained Sadaam through no-fly zone and sanctions, but he was still oppressing his people
• Klare calls it the “Kaleidoscope of threats”
• Our presence in Iraq has weakened our political clout in the Middle East
• Bush said “Bring it on” referring to having al Qaeda into Iraq where they could be engaged
• The Iraq war cannot be won and is now more of an occupation
• The US hasn’t even gotten an oil sharing arrangement out of Iraq
• Population now is often a bigger issue than military power, and leads to dissonance of various groups
• Iraq has different groups with different backgrounds and without a common government that can be respected and looked up to, chaos will likely ensue
• Saudi Arabia is under attack and regime living on borrowed time due to threats from internal extremism
• Iranians have tough time since they are Persian not Arabian
• Bush created a lot of problems from Iran including them in the Axis of Evil
• Iran trying to build nuclear technology, they have anti-ship missiles on the northern side of the Persian Gulf, and Chinese aircraft
• Iran also provides arms and explosives to terrorist groups in the Middle East
• Iran could cause a lot of troubles for us if we go to war with them. They are also getting supplies from China and Russia, and this could create the possibility of further trouble of possibility of involving them
• Ahmanadinajad (sp?) doesn’t have as much power as the president of other countries, and the real power rests in the Supreme Council.

China

• China imports 20% of its oil from Saudi Arabia, 13.8% from Iran, 10.3% from Oman
• Aramco partner of a refinery in Fujian province
• King Abdullah visited Beijing in 2005
• China ships cruise missiles and patrol boats to Iran
• Have benefited from the invasion of Iraq and US ties to Israel
• Saudis are in a stronger position because they have another good customer in China
• Russia is collaborating with SA about an OPEC for natural gas

Crossing the Threshold

• Moving towards a point of conflict over oil – a “cold war” type of situation
• US is building up bases and positions in Middle East and oil producing regions
• Emerging proto-blocs: NATO for Wester and Eastern Europe, CSTO? or Russian and old Soviet countries, Shanghai Cooperative (SCO?) for China/Russia and others
• China is now reconnecting with Russia
• Klare doesn’t mention anything about Latin America even though Hugo Chavez is being very active and has influenced other countries to take a more anti-American position
• With each incident over oil, there is another “dis” with the defeated country
• Nationalism is also on the rise again: we are seeing it in Russia and China and this is dangerous
• Oil is now a zero sum contest since if one country makes a discovery or gets more oil, it needs to be at the expense of another country
• China is supplying arms to Nigeria and helping the government get out of debt and investing in other non-oil industries
• Putin has muscled back into Khazakstan and other bordering countries but doing it through energy not ideology
• China started the Shanghai Cooperative to include Russia and former Soviet countries
• Collective Security Treaty Organization also includes all these countries plus others
• These are all proto-bloc organizations that are now competitive, but not yet conflictual
• For example, the Chunxiao gas field in the South China Sea is claimed by both China and Japan and both are trying to develop it. This is the same type of dispute that caused WWII
• Another hot point is the Straights of Hormuz because of the ability of several countries to be able to “close the door” on this strategic shipping choke point
• There is also a lot going on in the Caspian that could lead to conflict. In the end geography plays a very important role so it is unlikely the US will be able to keep a military presence there
• US is trying to setup a ring of containment around China with South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Australia. However, all countries might not hold.