Max S. Dunn

Book-Twilight in the Desert

Posted by: Max Dunn on April 7, 2008 15:21:24

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
by Matthew R. Simmons

Amazingly, this book wasn't boring. Although it was focused on analyzing and interpreting more than two hundred  Society for Petroleum Engineers (SPE) reports, it actually was quite interesting. Now of course, peak oil is a subject I am very interested in and having a physics background I also enjoyed the technical parts, but I suspect that other people will enjoy it too. But if you don't want to read the whole thing, it is easy to summarize Matthew Simmons conclusions:

• Only a handful of super-giant oilfields have ever been discovered in Saudi Arabia and these account for the bulk of their oil production
• It is not likely that any other giant oilfields will be discovered in Saudi Arabia
• Saudi Arabia production has probably peaked and it is very unlikely that it will be able to boost its output to the levels needed to sustain current global oil consumption growth rates

Simmons analysis is tight, detailed and hard to refute. However, his call for Aramco to reverse course and open their data for public review is shortsighted. Alerting the world to the fact their their oil production is declining will have only negative consequences for them including:

• Accelerating the global movement towards alternative energy sources
• Encouraging investment and re-build of other marginal fields
• The possibility of inciting rebellion in the Arab population against the Saud ruling family in order to control the dwindling oil supplies

So don't expect any openness from the Saudis about their oil situation. Instead, get used to the idea that Simmons is probably right and that we will run into major oil problems sometime soon.